The Start of Widespread Blackouts in the Post-Sanction Era?

Over the past year, despite a significant increase in electricity production, Iran has been forced to reduce exports and increase electricity imports. Interestingly, electricity production and consumption in Iran have reached a break-even point. It is expected that with the lifting of sanctions, Iran's industrial units, which are currently operating at half capacity, will flourish again, leading to a significant increase in electricity consumption in this sector. According to a report by Mehr News Agency on Monday, August 16, based on statements from the CEO of the Tehran Electricity Distribution Company, 'this summer, electricity production and consumption have reached a break-even point.' Forecasts indicate an 18 to 20 percent increase in electricity consumption in the industrial sector during the post-sanction period. According to an official report from the Ministry of Energy, the total electricity consumption in the country last year was about 219 billion kilowatt-hours, with the industrial sector consuming about 75 billion kilowatt-hours, meaning nearly 35 percent of the country's electricity is consumed in the industrial sector. Meanwhile, electricity consumption in this sector increased by about 4 billion kilowatt-hours compared to 2013, marking the highest growth in consumption after the residential sector. Currently, there are 206,000 industrial electricity subscribers in Iran. Looking at the Ministry of Energy's statistics, electricity production has doubled over the past decade, and even last year, electricity production capacity increased by 2,700 megawatts, with a further increase of 2,500 megawatts expected this year, bringing the total installed capacity to 75,000 megawatts. However, Iran's electricity exports have decreased to less than half compared to the pre-sanction period, reaching 3.7 billion kilowatt-hours. This figure experienced a further 14 percent decrease from the beginning of this year until last week. In the electricity sector, given the rapid growth in consumption, increased production will not meet domestic needs, especially since the two major industries, namely the refining and automotive sectors, are still operating at 70 percent capacity, and Iran aims to fully utilize its units as soon as sanctions are lifted. Additionally, Iran plans to increase its petrochemical and automotive production capacity by 200 percent within the next five years. Under these circumstances, as Mehr News Agency has reported, Iran will face an 'electricity crisis.' However, Iran has another solution: optimizing power plants and reducing energy losses during transmission. More than 82 percent of Iran's electricity is produced in thermal power plants. According to the Ministry of Energy's report, the efficiency of these power plants is, on average, 37 percent, which is a very low figure. Over the years, Iran has attempted to convert its gas and steam power plants, which have a 30 percent efficiency and account for 57 percent of total electricity production, into combined cycle power plants to increase their efficiency to about 45 percent, but so far, it has only succeeded in raising the share of combined cycle plants in the country's electricity production to 25 percent. Iran can increase the efficiency of its power plants by attracting foreign investment and technology. On the other hand, due to the aging and wear of equipment, 14 to 18 percent of the country's produced electricity is wasted during transmission, which is a very high figure. Iran can improve its electricity networks to prevent the annual waste of 30 to 40 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity. In this context, can Iran also rely on renewable energies? The Iranian electricity industry and hope for the lifting of sanctions. An explosion in eastern Iraq cut off electricity transmission from Iran. The changing battlefield of 'proxies'; war against the people in the streets of Iran. The first paragraph; the responsibility of the opposition and the possibility of radicalization in Iranian society. The death of the last Mossad representative in Tehran amid the Iranian crisis.