Why Did Europe Lift Sanctions on Syria in Less Than Two Months?

Less than two months after Bashar al-Assad was ousted from power, the foreign ministers of the European Union reached an agreement on a roadmap to reduce sanctions on Syria. Josep Borrell, the EU's foreign policy chief, announced on January 28 that Brussels aims to expedite the reduction of sanctions. He also warned that if incorrect steps are taken, sanctions could be reinstated. Bashar al-Assad's government has been under the most severe economic, political, and military sanctions for years. This new decision by Europe comes after the United States had previously issued six-month exemptions for some Syrian sanctions in December, facilitating access to essential services following Assad's fall in the country. But why did Europe take such action? What are the interests of the European continent in lifting sanctions on Syria? Supporting the economic reconstruction of Syria is one of the goals, as the Syrian economy has been severely damaged after years of war and sanctions. The country's GDP has decreased by nearly 90% over the past 15 years, and according to World Bank statistics, about 90% of the population lives in poverty, with Assad's government failing to restore economic stability after the civil war. Part of the EU's aim in lifting these sanctions is likely to assist in the economic reconstruction of Syria and improve living conditions in the country. This policy is pursued for other underlying goals as well. Such an event could prevent the formation of a new base for Islamic extremist and terrorist groups that could threaten stability and security in the region and beyond, while also facilitating the return of refugees to their homes. According to the latest statistics from the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), just under 1.1 million Syrians have entered European countries in recent years following the civil war. However, the total number of Syrian refugees is much higher, with over three million in Turkey and about one million in neighboring Lebanon. Additionally, 650,000 are in Jordan and another 250,000 have sought refuge in Iraq after the civil wars in their countries. Among European countries, over 800,000 Syrian refugees are in Germany, which has sparked significant political debate in the country in recent years. After Assad's regime fell, European governments announced they would stop processing asylum requests from Syrian citizens. Over the years, with the rise of right-wing groups in various EU countries, pressure on the immigration policies of these governments has increased. These political movements attribute a significant part of their domestic problems to 'generous quotas granted to Middle Eastern refugees,' which they believe have led to 'job shortages and increased living costs and taxes.' In such circumstances, lifting sanctions on Syria by European countries could create an environment for the return of citizens to their homeland, thereby reducing political attacks on non-rightist rulers in European governments from their political opponents. According to the latest statistics from the UNHCR, after Assad's fall, about 200,000 Syrian refugees have returned to their country, most likely from neighboring countries like Turkey, Lebanon, and Iraq. This agency also predicts that in the first half of 2025, about one million more Syrian refugees will return home. Measures such as improving transportation and energy infrastructure and resolving economic issues could facilitate the return of Syrian refugees. Another important factor in the EU's lifting of sanctions on Syria is the economic opportunities available to European companies. Rebuilding war-torn Syria is not an easy task, and large-scale economic projects will be defined for it. Given the critical state of the Syrian economy, it can be expected that these costs will be covered either by friends and allies of the new Damascus government in the region or through loans and aid from international organizations. In such an environment, significant projects for European companies in rebuilding infrastructure such as energy and transportation will be available, allowing them to achieve substantial economic benefits and play a role in Syria's reconstruction process. On the other hand, lifting economic sanctions on Syria provides European companies the opportunity to introduce their products to a new and untapped market called Syria, gaining new economic benefits through their sales. Another dimension of the European countries' decision to lift sanctions on Syria may be the incentives provided to the new rulers of the country. Since the rise of Abu Muhammad al-Julani in Syria, concerns about the formation of a new authoritarian government with the presence of the HTS militia, which is already on the US and EU terrorist lists, have been serious. The EU aims to encourage the new Syrian government to establish an inclusive and transparent system through the reduction of sanctions, one that does not allow extremism to have a share. Creating such incentives, like lifting sanctions on Syria conditionally, could create a capacity to prevent armed militants from replicating a Taliban-like model in Afghanistan, allowing for the acceptance of the roles of various ethnic, religious, and gender groups in the new Syrian government structure, thus benefiting from interaction with the Western world and avoiding becoming an isolated government in the region. Despite all this, the outlook for realizing all these scenarios seems fraught with obstacles. The background of this Islamic extremist group, ethnic, religious, and sectarian challenges in Syria, the involvement of various regional actors in the Syrian crisis, and the potential for authoritarian tendencies among the new rulers are all among the barriers that could lead to post-Assad Syria being little different from what was seen during decades of Ba'ath Party rule in the country. This is why European and American officials speak of conditional lifting of sanctions or consider temporary and short-term exemptions for this matter for Syria.